In a recent development, the future of Canada's oilsands sector and its environmental impact has come into sharp focus. The Canadian Climate Institute's environmental economist, Dave Sawyer, has warned that the sector is on a trajectory to significantly increase greenhouse gas emissions, even with the implementation of the Pathways carbon storage project. This raises critical questions about the effectiveness of current measures and the potential consequences for our planet.
The Oilsands Emissions Dilemma
The proposed new West Coast pipeline, if realized, would enable a substantial increase in oilsands production, resulting in an estimated 20 megatonnes of new emissions annually. This figure far surpasses the emissions reduction goals set by the Pathways Project, which aims to store six megatonnes annually underground starting in 2035, with an additional 10-megatonne reduction by 2045. The project's initial target was even more ambitious, aiming for 22 megatonnes of storage by 2030.
Market Incentives and Carbon Pricing
Sawyer highlights that changes to Alberta's carbon pricing system, announced earlier this year, have not provided the necessary market incentives for industry to invest in emissions reduction. Personally, I find this concerning, as it suggests that current policies may not be sufficient to drive the necessary behavioral changes within the industry. It's a reminder that while carbon pricing is a crucial tool, it's not a silver bullet solution.
The Pembina Institute's Perspective
The Pembina Institute, another think tank, has conducted a study on Canada's emissions trajectory under different scenarios. Their findings indicate that the "Grand Bargain" scenario, which includes both Pathways and the new pipeline, would result in the highest absolute oilsands emissions - a staggering 89 megatonnes annually by 2035. This is 19% higher than the scenario that includes Pathways but no new pipeline. Janetta McKenzie, director of the institute's oil and gas program, emphasizes that without significant changes, oilsands emissions are likely to continue rising over the next two decades.
Energy Accord and Government Commitments
The Alberta and federal governments' energy accord, signed late last year, sets out conditions for a new West Coast oil pipeline, making it contingent on the successful implementation of Pathways. The governments have also agreed to provide significant financial support for both projects, with the federal and Alberta governments taking on 90% of the new pipeline's costs, which are projected to be as high as $43.7 billion. This level of public financing for the well-established and profitable oilsands sector is unprecedented and raises questions about the priorities and strategies of our government.
Carbon Capture: A Wild Card Technology
Sawyer describes carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) as a "wild card" technology, suggesting that its current lack of commercial viability and deployment is due to various uncertainties. He advocates for a stronger industrial carbon pricing regime to drive down oilsands emissions, but acknowledges that governments have limited options at this stage, hence the pursuit of Pathways. The potential cost of the carbon capture project, estimated at $20-30 billion, further underscores the scale and complexity of the challenge.
Local Concerns and Community Impact
A group of rural landowners, farmers, and Indigenous communities has expressed deep alarm at the progress of the Pathways project. They are concerned about the safety, health, and environmental effects of pressurized CO2 running through pipelines beneath their land. This highlights the human and environmental cost of such large-scale projects and the importance of community engagement and consent in decision-making processes.
Conclusion
The future of Canada's oilsands sector and its environmental impact is a complex and critical issue. While the Pathways project and the new West Coast pipeline offer potential opportunities, they also present significant challenges and uncertainties. As we navigate these complexities, it's essential to consider the broader implications for our planet and the communities directly impacted by these decisions. The path forward requires a thoughtful and balanced approach, one that prioritizes both economic development and environmental sustainability.
